Forecasting the Demand for Petroleum Products
The forecasting is based on the use of mathematical models that establish the dependence of demand on a specific set of factors. Each petroleum product has its own set of demand parameters and its own form of mathematical model.
Which markets are considered to be within the competencies of the Petromarket Research Group?
Russia (at both federal and regional level), Kazakhstan, Belarus and the other post-Soviet countries, Mongolia and Afghanistan.
Gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, marine, furnace and boiler fuels, LPG, naphtha, petroleum coke and bitumen.
What is special about Petromarket RG’s methodology?
- The computational tools used to model demand are of our own design; advanced methods of econometric analysis are used in their construction.
- Our models are subject to ongoing evaluation and improvement, in order to keep pace with developments in the field of econometrics and the emergence of new demand parameters.
- Basic parameters – the factors most commonly associated with demand. Examples: growth in income and population or growth in industries, in which the consumption of petroleum products is concentrated (for example, diesel fuel is commonly used in transportation, construction, agriculture and a few other sectors), growth in the efficiency of the internal combustion engine, the seasonal effect of fuel consumption (taken into account, for example, during monthly and quarterly forecasts).
- Structural change parameters – these are non-traditional factors, generally caused by changes in usage dynamics or operational characteristics. Examples: the spread of electric vehicles, the introduction of car sharing, the development of taxi services based on mobile applications (“uberisation”).
- Modelling tools allow the dynamics of demand to be determined in the forecasting period, in terms of a given future scenario.
- Each and every scenario represents a reasonable hypothesis in respect of changes in the general economic situation (the dynamics of petroleum prices on the world market, the dollar exchange rate, inflation, the rate of growth of a country’s economy, etc.), together with the methods employed by the state to regulate petroleum products and their related markets.
- The choice of a scenario type and the number of scenarios selected are ultimately dependent upon the forecasting objectives. As a rule – in order to estimate potential demand – scenarios are chosen to span the broadest possible range of parameters; favourable (optimistic), unfavourable (pessimistic) and conservative (inertial) scenarios may all be taken into account.
- The forecasting period is limited only by the time interval over which the forecasting scenario extends.
- Forecasts may, for example, be performed in incremental steps of one year, 3 months or just one month.
What makes Petromarket RG forecasts stand out?
Maximum degree of validity
Petromarket RG forecasting is carried out using the industry’s most reliable information base and the most advanced econometric modelling techniques.
High degree of accuracy
Petromarket RG’s demand forecasting has an ongoing accuracy rating of 96–98%.
The contribution of each and every parameter to overall demand can normally be quantified as a function of the mathematical format of the demand model.
10 years of successful experience in petroleum product demand forecasting on behalf of market participants and public authorities.
The company is in a position to carry out multivariate forecasts of demand for petroleum products by order of any interested party. Forecasting can be carried out on a one-off basis, or alternatively performed on a regular basis at reasonable intervals. Forecasting scenarios may be proposed by the client, or developed in-house by Petromarket RG, in accordance with the objectives pursued by the client.
How do I put in an order for demand forecasting?
Submit an application, indicating the following:
- your forecasting objectives;
- which product markets and which countries you are interested in;
- your required horizon and prediction step.
If you already have a draft proposal for your forecasting requirements, please attach this to your application.