- the quality requirements of its marketable products;
- restrictions on the refinery output and the supply of products;
- the market prices for feedstock and the products of refining
- the operating costs of the enterprise.
Forecasts for the Refining and Product Manufacture
Forecasting is carried out using computational models of refinery operations. Each refinery has its own model, designed to reflect the configuration of the refinery and simulate its operation based on:
To which countries does Petromarket RG’s competence extend?
Forecasting is carried out using complex, fully-featured models at all refineries (without exception) in Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In the other post-Soviet countries, forecasting is carried out using simplified models.
What is special about Petromarket RG’s methodology?
- The model of each refinery reflects the key characteristics of the enterprise: the quality of feedstock, the composition of the main process units, their capacities and material balances, unit repair plans, flow diagrams, the most important physical and chemical properties of intermediate products, the range of products and the target quality parameters for commercial products
- The economics of processing oil feedstock is also reflected in the refinery models by the inclusion of prices for every type of feedstock and commercial product, as well as the operating costs of both the plant as a whole and its individual units.
- Refinery models are traditional modelling tools; from the mathematical standpoint, the task represents a linear programming optimisation problem, with solutions based on the financial results (EBITDA) obtainable under a given set of conditions and restrictions.
- Each and every refinery model is developed by the company’s specialists on the basis of the most reliable information on the configuration of the refining enterprise and its operation.
- Where technical details are calculated into a refinery model, the aim is to maintain a reasonable compromise between the accuracy of the calculations, the ease of providing information support and the simplicity of operation of the models.
- Models are designed to be quickly and easily adaptable to any alterations in the processing flow charts of the given refinery.
- Modelling tools allow the operation of each and every refinery to be predicted for any given scenario.
- The forecasting scenario is intended to represent a reasonable theoretical proposition in the light of expected fluctuations in crude oil and petroleum product prices on the world market, the dollar exchange rate, inflation, transportation tariffs, changes in oil refining technology, the composition and quality of processed feedstock and changes to the system of state regulation for the oil industry.
- The choice of a scenario type and the number of scenarios selected are ultimately dependent upon the forecasting objectives.
- The forecasting period is limited only by the time interval over which the forecasting scenario extends.
- Forecasts may, for example, be performed in incremental steps of one year, 3 months or just one month.
What makes Petromarket RG forecasts stand out?
High degree of confidence
The effectiveness of any given production model is confirmed by the closeness of its calculated indicator values to the actually-occurring values, and by reviewing the model in the refinery environment.
Relatively simple refinery models and convenient methods of forecasting visualisation bring understanding to even the most unexpected results.
High computational speed
Calculation of the forecasted volumes of oil refined and/or products manufactured in any given refinery during 12 months of operation within a given scenario normally takes no more than 20 seconds.
Wide range of forecasting indicators
In the refinery models, a total of 30 different petroleum products are modelled.
The company is in a position to carry out the multivariate forecasting of oil refining and petroleum product manufacture by order of any interested party. Forecasting can be carried out on a one-off basis, or alternatively performed on a regular basis at reasonable intervals. Forecasting scenarios may be proposed by the client, or developed in-house by Petromarket RG, in accordance with the objectives pursued by the client.
How do I order forecasts of the amount of oil refined and/or products manufactured?
Submit an application, indicating the following:
- your forecasting objectives;
- which refineries and which countries you are interested in;
- your required horizon and prediction step.
If you already have a draft proposal for your forecasting requirements, please attach this to your application.